The UK could save electricity consumers £3 billion a year by reaching the Government’s target of 29 GW of onshore wind capacity by 2030, according to new analysis released by RenewableUK and Scottish Renewables.

The estimate compares the cost of building the new onshore wind capacity needed to reach the target with producing the same amount of electricity from new gas-fired power stations.

The findings come as wind generation is already having an impact on wholesale electricity prices. Research by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), cited by RenewableUK, found that wholesale electricity prices would have been 31% higher in 2025 without wind power if the UK had relied instead on more expensive gas.

The UK currently has 16.4 GW of fully operational onshore wind capacity, generating around 12% of the country’s annual electricity needs. Scotland accounts for most of this capacity, with 10.7 GW currently operational.

Nearly £500 million a year for local communities

RenewableUK’s analysis also estimates that reaching the 29 GW target would deliver nearly £500 million a year to local communities.

This includes £348 million in business and property rates and £145 million in direct, long-term annual community benefit funds.

According to the organisation, these funds support priorities chosen by local communities, including community buildings and facilities, environmental schemes, skills and training programmes, measures to tackle fuel poverty and rural isolation, and support for community pubs.

Employment in the sector is also expected to increase. Around 15,000 people currently work in the UK onshore wind industry, with that figure expected to rise to 17,500 by 2030.

RenewableUK said around 70% of lifecycle spending by onshore wind projects already takes place in the UK, including the construction and operation of wind farms. Research commissioned by the organisation estimates that expanding the domestic supply chain between now and 2050 could add up to £56 billion in gross value added (GVA) to the UK economy.

Repowering existing wind farms

Replacing older turbines at existing wind farms with newer and more efficient models is identified as one of the ways to unlock additional capacity more quickly where communities support the projects.

Polling released by Copper Consultancy found that 70% of respondents support replacing smaller turbines with larger models to generate more clean electricity. Three-quarters of those surveyed live in or near areas that already have onshore wind farms.

Analysis by RenewableUK’s EnergyPulse data team estimates that repowering existing wind farms and extending the lifetime of current projects could increase capacity at existing sites by an average of one-third.

RenewableUK said repowering also has the potential to be cheaper than developing entirely new projects because existing sites and grid infrastructure can be reused.

Its database shows that repowering and lifetime extensions could add 659 MW of capacity towards the Government’s 2030 target, rising to 2.1 GW by 2035 and 7.7 GW by 2040.

RenewableUK CEO Tara Singh said reaching the 2030 target would depend on accelerating grid connections and replacing older turbines with more powerful models.

“Hitting the UK’s onshore wind target by 2030 [...] can only be achieved if we can get new projects connected to the grid faster and enable older turbines to be replaced by much more powerful new ones,” Singh said.

She described onshore wind as “one of our cheapest forms of new power” and one of the fastest to build, adding that expanding capacity would “cut bills and strengthen the UK’s energy security by delivering more homegrown power at the lowest cost”.

Grid connections remain a challenge

Reaching the national target will require further capacity growth across the UK. The Scottish Onshore Wind Sector Deal, signed in 2023, committed to reaching 20 GW of operational onshore wind capacity in Scotland by 2030.

In England and Wales, the UK Government wants capacity to increase from 4.2 GW to 8.6 GW by 2030.

However, grid access remains a challenge. Analysis by Aurora Energy Research cited in the release shows that projects representing only around half of the capacity required to meet the 29 GW target currently have grid connection offers. This includes 10.4 GW in Scotland and 2.6 GW in England and Wales.

Scottish Renewables CEO Angela Hepworth said “Scotland will be fundamental to delivering the UK’s future energy system”, highlighting its existing onshore wind sector and the jobs, local supply chains and communities it supports.

“Maximising Scotland’s onshore wind opportunity means bringing forward new projects while repowering our existing fleet with more efficient technology,” Hepworth said.

She added that “ambition must be matched by delivery”, pointing to planning, grid connections, transmission charging and routes to market as areas that need to work together to provide investors with confidence.

Government highlights role of onshore wind

UK Energy Minister Michael Shanks described onshore wind as “a vital part of how we bring down energy bills and reduce our exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets”.

“It’s also an industrial opportunity creating good jobs across the country,” he said, adding that the Government had lifted the ban on onshore wind in England, backed new projects across Great Britain and consulted on community benefits.

Scottish Energy Minister Stephen Gethins said that “most renewable electricity generated in Scotland comes from onshore wind”, which he described as “one of the cheapest forms of power we can build”.

“Onshore wind is helping to deliver jobs, drive economic growth and bring lasting benefits for communities across Scotland,” Gethins added.

Make UK Director of Policy & Public Affairs Verity Davidge said energy costs remain the primary concern for the organisation’s members and argued that “a renewable-led power system is the best way to reduce energy costs by reducing our reliance on volatile gas markets”.

“The message today is clear, net zero and energy security go hand in hand and industry is committed to this charge,” Davidge said.

The analysis was released at the Onshore Wind Conference 2026, co-hosted by RenewableUK and Scottish Renewables in Edinburgh on September 1 and 2.