The University of Manchester has received funding to lead a 12-month research project to improve understanding of the energy performance of offshore wind energy in UK waters as capacity increases.

The new project, POUNDS (Prediction Of UnqualifieD losseS from offshore wind park wakes), aims to provide a national-scale assessment of interactions between wind farms, supporting policymakers and industry leaders to optimize offshore wind energy production on the path to net-zero.

The main objectives of the project include:

-Assessing how offshore wind farms affect each other's energy production and the implications of these impacts on revenues.

-Helping to identify the best locations for future offshore wind farms to minimize these losses and ensure the UK’s renewable energy goals are met.

-Validating modeled performance data against operational data.

-Improving the accuracy of models in forecasting the energy production of wind farms.

The UK government aims to reach 43-50 GW of offshore wind energy by 2030. Significant progress has already been made, with 16 GW currently operational and additional projects underway under the recent Contracts for Difference. However, to meet the 2030 target, capacity needs to be tripled, potentially reaching over 100 GW of installed capacity by 2050.

Such substantial expansion of offshore wind farms means they will need to be built closer together, making it crucial to understand how this impacts the predictions of annual energy production.

When large clusters of turbines are built close together, wakes are created where the wind slows down behind them. Wakes have been observed to extend up to 65 km and increasingly affect the performance of neighboring wind farms, reducing turbine efficiency in energy production and causing conflicts between wind farm operators.

Dr. Pablo Ouro, project leader and researcher at the University of Manchester’s Department of Civil Engineering and Management, said: "Achieving the target of 43-50 GW of offshore wind farms deployed by 2030 is critical for NetZero and energy security, but the reduction in energy forecasting due to offshore wind farm wakes needs to be addressed."

POUNDS, funded by the Offshore Renewable Energy Supergen Impact Centre of the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), will be conducted in partnership with leading Offshore Renewable Energy (ORE) institutes, industry experts, and UK policymakers, including ORE Catapult, Arup, EDF, RWE, and The Crown Estate.

Regarding its methodology, POUNDS will use state-of-the-art mesoscale models (a type of advanced numerical weather prediction model) to model the performance of wind farms in UK waters with a resolution of 1 km. It will evaluate both wind farms operational in 2023 and the thousands of additional wind turbines planned for 2030.

The analysis will assess the model’s accuracy against real-world data and quantify the effects of wind farm wakes on the forecasted energy performance. It will also record wakes and wind farm performance in comparison to energy export grid data.