The U.S. wind energy market in the first quarter exceeded 2024’s pace—more than doubling activity with 2.1 GW of installations, all derived from new onshore construction. Despite this surge, turbine orders dropped 50% year over year in the first half, plummeting to levels unseen since 2020, amid mounting regulatory uncertainty—including tariff risks and policy ambiguity.

Wood Mackenzie projects total capacity additions of 8.1 GW in 2025, covering onshore, offshore, and repowered assets. But still, the market faces challenges due to evolving political conditions that threaten both demand and affordability. John Hensley, ACP’s SVP of Markets and Policy Analysis, warned that regulatory roadblocks could push costs higher and jeopardize America’s ability to meet its clean energy needs domestically.

Onshore Trends and Outlook

Turbine orders have cooled in 2025, but safe harbor demand is expected to rebound in H2 following full passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Leila Garcia da Fonseca, Wood Mackenzie’s Director of Research, noted a net reduction of around 430 MW in onshore projections for 2025–2029, largely attributed to permit delays, tariff exposure, and expiration of tax credit windows. A rebound in 2029–2030 is anticipated as developers rush to qualify before credits expire. Western U.S. markets are projected to add roughly 9.4 GW of onshore capacity through 2029, leading other regions in growth.

Offshore Landscape

Wood Mackenzie’s five year outlook includes 5.9 GW of offshore wind capacity coming online by 2029, nearly all of which is already under construction. However, Garcia da Fonseca flagged regulatory constraints under potential future administrations—including a freeze on new final investment decisions—that could significantly impair offshore buildout in the 2030s.

Longer-Term Forecast and Policy Shifts

Despite near-term volatility, Wood Mackenzie forecasts average annual installations of 8.  GW across all wind segments over the next five years, culminating in approximately 44 GW installed by 2029—about 33 GW from new onshore projects, 6 GW offshore, and 5.4 GW from repowering, totaling 197 GW cumulative capacity.

OBBBA’s shift of tax credit eligibility from "placed in service" to "start of construction" creates a 12-month window for developers to qualify under a four-year safe harbor, pending IRS rules. Wood Mackenzie’s modelling suggests that losing credits could increase the unsubsidized levelized cost of energy (LCOE) by up to 25%, substantially more than the impact expected from tariff scenarios (up to 10%).