According to the U.S. Wind Energy Monitor report released today by Wood Mackenzie and the American Clean Power Association (ACP), the U.S. wind market installed 593 megawatts (MW) in the second quarter of 2025 — a 60% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. However, installations during the first nine months of 2025 are projected to surpass last year’s figures, reaching a total of 3.8 gigawatts (GW).

Despite the Q2 slowdown, activity is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. More than half (51%) of the forecasted annual capacity is scheduled to come online in the fourth quarter, bringing the 2025 total to 7.7 GW.

Onshore activity

The post-OBBBA outlook for U.S. onshore wind increased by 3.6% (2.4 GW) quarter-on-quarter, as developers rush to complete projects before the expiration of key tax credits.

“We are seeing this uptick in the near term because many projects are shovel-ready or under construction, fully permitted and with a turbine order in place,” said Leila Garcia da Fonseca, director of research at Wood Mackenzie. “However, we will face uncertainty later in this decade due to tariff investigations and permitting challenges.”

Turbine order activity has been muted in the first half of 2025 amid policy uncertainty. While Treasury guidance confirming tax credit eligibility provided a 7% boost to near-term installations, new tariff investigations threaten the supply chain supporting two-thirds of U.S. wind turbine components. The Department of Commerce’s national security probe could inflate project costs by up to one-third, creating downside risk for installations later in the decade.

“We’re seeing policy whiplash,” Garcia da Fonseca added. “Treasury guidance helps the advanced development pipeline, but tariff investigations and permitting hurdles are creating uncertainty beyond 2027.”

Regionally, western states are expected to lead activity through 2029, accounting for 31% of installations, followed by the Midwest. The Midwest will take the lead in 2027 and 2028, with Illinois surpassing Texas in 2027 by adding more than 1.8 GW of new capacity.

Offshore activity

Wood Mackenzie projects 5.9 GW of offshore wind capacity to come online by 2029, with 2026 and 2027 driving most of the growth.

“Recent federal stop-work orders and regulatory uncertainty have disrupted the offshore wind sector, weakening already fragile offtake opportunities and exposing the high investment risk in U.S. offshore wind development,” said Garcia da Fonseca. “However, our five-year outlook remains unchanged, and 70% of the forecasted capacity is already under construction.”

Market spike expected in 2027

Across onshore, offshore, and repowering segments, Wood Mackenzie forecasts average annual installations of 9.1 GW over the next five years. By the end of 2029, approximately 46 GW of wind power capacity is expected to be added — including 35.5 GW from new onshore projects, 6 GW from offshore developments, and 4.5 GW from repowering. This would bring total cumulative capacity to 196.5 GW.

A significant surge is expected in 2027, when shovel-ready projects are forecast to push installations to a peak of 12.3 GW.

“Despite political headwinds, wind projects are demonstrating market resilience,” said Garcia da Fonseca. “Wind continues to secure ISAs in 2025 despite anti-wind rhetoric. The technology maintains meaningful market presence even as solar and storage lead interconnection activity, with leadership concentrated in SPP and ERCOT.”