In the last decade, two geopolitical conflicts have shaken the foundations of the global energy system. Two distinct crises, but with a shared root: dependence on fossil fuels.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 removed the world’s largest energy exporter from key markets and forced Europe to replace, almost overnight, its main gas supplier. Four years later, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil and LNG flows, have triggered one of the most severe supply disruptions ever recorded, affecting more than 10 million barrels per day, according to Ember. That is twice the scale of the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979.

Taken together, both episodes point to a clear conclusion: fossil fuel trade has never been more geopolitically exposed. At the same time, they have opened a structural opportunity. Unlike past crises, today there are scalable and competitive alternatives, solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles, that are not only cushioning disruption, but actively reshaping the system itself.

Beyond decarbonisation, renewables are increasingly emerging as a core pillar of energy security, reducing exposure to volatile markets, strengthening national autonomy and improving system stability. Against this backdrop, the question is no longer whether the energy system should change, but how fast.

To explore these shifts, Review Energy spoke with Lindsey Entwistle, Principal Analyst, Energy Transition at Wood Mackenzie; Bruce Douglas, CEO of the Global Renewables Alliance; and Jacob Mandel, Research Lead at Aurora Energy Research, in order to understand what has truly changed — and what remains unresolved.

As Douglas puts it, the shift is already structural: “The transition has shifted from being a long-term environmental ambition to a hard-nosed, immediate security imperative. We are moving from importing fuels to building infrastructure. Once a wind or solar plant is built, the ‘fuel’ is local, free, and not subject to geopolitical pressure. This is not just a new chapter — it is a new book.”

A turning point or an accelerated evolution?

Despite the magnitude of recent disruptions, there is no full consensus on whether this marks a structural turning point.

For Lindsey Entwistle, the direction of travel is clear, but the timing remains uncertain. In her view, countries are increasingly prioritising energy security, with potential reductions of up to 50% in oil and gas import exposure, translating into a 20% fall in oil demand and 10% in gas demand by 2050. However, she cautions that this remains a hypothetical scenario, and that meaningful structural change is unlikely before 2030 due to infrastructure bottlenecks and supply chain constraints.

By contrast, Jacob Mandel frames the situation more as continuity than rupture. In his words, “this is more of an evolution than a sharp change.” From his perspective, the current crisis reinforces a lesson already evident in 2022: hydrocarbon markets remain inherently volatile and exposed to geopolitical shocks. “Most of the time nothing happens, but when it does, it can be a big deal,” he notes.

Meanwhile, Bruce Douglas takes a more definitive stance, arguing that a structural inflection point has already been reached. In his view, “energy security is synonymous with domestic renewable production.” For him, recent crises have exposed the fragility of global fossil fuel supply chains and accelerated a transition that is now strategic rather than purely environmental.

From decarbonisation to energy security

Across the three interviews, there is broad agreement that the narrative around renewables has fundamentally shifted.

From Entwistle’s perspective, one of the emerging risks is the replacement of fossil fuel dependence with new vulnerabilities in critical minerals and concentrated supply chains. For this reason, she stresses the importance of building domestic supply chains where posible, particularly in solar, batteries, electric vehicles and grid infrastructure, while diversifying where not feasible.

At the same time, Mandel highlights how the sector itself is being redefined. Rather than focusing solely on clean generation, renewables must now ensure system-wide stability. In his view, “they need to ensure stable access to inputs, but also provide stability to the system.” As a result, storage, flexible dispatch and long-term contracts such as PPAs are becoming increasingly central.

Taking this argument further, Douglas reframes the entire concept: “energy sovereignty is renewable security.” Whereas renewables were once primarily seen as a decarbonisation tool, their core value today lies in delivering independence and competitive pricing. As he summarises, the transition has moved from a long-term ambition to an immediate security imperative.

Is Europe better prepared?

Overall, the assessment is nuanced: Europe is more resilient, but still exposed.

From Entwistle’s perspective, one of the key differences lies in scale. While the Ukraine crisis primarily disrupted European gas supplies, the current tensions are global, affecting around 20% of global oil and gas flows. Even so, she points to early signs of structural adjustment, including the growing role of electric vehicles in reducing oil dependence. On gas, however, she notes that preparedness has improved only marginally, with storage levels at 82% in October 2025 still below the historical average, and recent stability partly driven by mild weather and high prices.

For his part, Mandel agrees that Europe is in a stronger position than in 2022, largely thanks to expanded LNG infrastructure and diversified supply routes, including the United States, Qatar and Australia. In addition, rising renewable penetration and lower demand have eased pressure on the system. However, he also points to new vulnerabilities, particularly reduced fuel-switching flexibility following the coal phase-out and persistent — albeit reduced — reliance on Russian gas.

From Douglas’ standpoint, the nature of the risk has simply changed. “The vulnerability has moved from generation to integration,” he explains. In other words, the challenge is no longer installing renewable capacity, but ensuring that grids and storage systems can deliver electricity where it is needed. In his view, “we have the technology, the tools and the targets — what is missing is political will to treat electrification as a national security issue.”

Winners, losers and shifting value chains

The impact of these crises has been uneven across the energy system.

In the short term, Entwistle notes that fossil fuel exporters not directly affected by supply disruptions have benefited, while importing countries have faced higher costs. Over the longer term, however, she suggests the balance could shift in favour of countries and companies with manufacturing capacity in clean technologies, as electrification accelerates, while fossil fuel exporters may face structural demand decline.

Similarly, Mandel observes that high-price environments tend to benefit energy suppliers and developers, particularly in areas such as storage and flexibility. Electric vehicles are also increasingly attractive under these conditions. On the other hand, energy-intensive industries and households without adequate protection mechanisms remain among the most exposed.

A more resilient system, but with new dependencies

While resilience has improved, new vulnerabilities have emerged in parallel.

As Entwistle highlights, dependencies have not disappeared, they have simply shifted. Critical minerals and clean technology supply chains are becoming the new strategic bottlenecks, reinforcing the need for diversification and domestic industrial capacity.

Mandel echoes this duality. On one hand, Europe’s system is more resilient thanks to renewables and improved market responsiveness. On the other, it is less flexible due to reduced fuel-switching options. Still, he emphasises that price signals remain a key stabilising mechanism, helping balance demand and prevent shortages.

Across all perspectives, one conclusion stands out: the energy transition does not eliminate risk, it transforms it.

In this new equilibrium, renewables are no longer only a climate solution. Increasingly, they are becoming the structural foundation of future energy security.