As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, the potential for significant shifts in global energy dynamics looms large. However, recent analysis by Rystad Energy indicates that the domestic renewable energy and cleantech sectors are poised to thrive, regardless of whether a Democrat or Republican occupies the White House.

Cleantech momentum in Republican states

Rystad Energy’s projections reveal a robust future for cleantech industries, particularly in traditionally Republican states such as Oklahoma, Iowa, Florida, and Texas. These states are not only leading the charge in renewable energy investments but are also becoming key players in the production of critical clean technologies. By 2030, it is anticipated that these states will contribute:

- 57% of all US battery cell manufacturing capacity

- 59% of solar photovoltaic (PV) cell and module production

- 95% of hydrogen production capacity

- 83% of carbon capture capacity

This significant presence underscores the transformative impact of cleantech on infrastructure and employment, highlighting the sector's role in economic growth and job creation.

Cleantech has increasingly become a bipartisan success story in the US. Rystad Energy’s analysis shows that the bulk of cleantech projects—ranging from solar and batteries to hydrogen and carbon capture—are concentrated in Republican strongholds. This widespread support is driven by the tangible economic benefits of cleantech, which are likely to persist regardless of the election outcome.

Impact of previous administration policies

Despite concerns about the potential rollback of cleantech advancements, historical patterns suggest that cleantech initiatives may continue unabated. Under President Donald Trump's administration, while there was a notable withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, cleantech projects did not stall. In fact, Trump’s administration implemented measures to protect domestic solar manufacturing and saw an increase in onshore wind capacity.

Future challenges and legislative prospects

According to Rystad Energy, should a Republican administration take office in 2025, it might seek to alter or weaken climate policies from the Biden administration, including the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This could impact electric vehicle (EV) adoption and lead to reduced environmental regulations. However, legislative gridlock is a real possibility, especially if a Republican president faces a Democrat-controlled House of Representatives.

Recent legislative proposals, such as the "Drive American Act" proposed by Senator J.D. Vance, aim to shift incentives away from EVs and towards internal combustion engines. Despite this, President Trump's recent endorsement of EVs, influenced by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, suggests some potential policy shifts may still favor clean energy.

Regardless of the electoral outcome, the cleantech sector in the US is expected to continue its growth trajectory. Investments in renewable energy and related technologies are driving economic benefits and job creation across the country. While political shifts may influence policy direction, the underlying momentum in cleantech appears resilient, ensuring a bright future for the sector.