A new Ember report reveals that a significant decrease in electricity demand combined with record renewable electricity supply prevented the EU from returning to fossil fuels this winter.

As the EU headed into winter 2022 with fears of gas shortages and a raging cost of living crisis, there was understandable concern over how the electricity system and consumers would cope during the coldest months. Europe’s power sector had already suffered a tumultuous year. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed the cost of gas sky high, whilst low nuclear and hydropower generation further exacerbated the energy crisis. Record solar and wind growth helped plug the generation deficit but speculation continued around the EU’s ‘return to coal’, Ember says.

The report reveals that almost all Member States reduced electricity demand during the winter, although only a handful achieved the voluntary 10% reduction target set by emergency EU legislation. Total EU electricity demand was down 6% on the five-year average, saving €12 bn worth of electricity over winter (November-March). These demand reductions contributed to security of supply, saved gas for other uses, and prevented a return of coal generation.

As fossil fuel generation dropped 12% year-on-year due to a large drop in power demand, renewables increased to overtake the share of fossil fuels in the EU electricity mix for the first time. Renewables accounted for 40% of EU generation between October and March, with fossil fuels at 37%. Coal power fell by 11% (-27 TWh) and gas by 13% (-38 TWh) compared to the previous winter, Ember confirms.

Of the 18 countries in the EU that continue to use coal for power, 15 reduced coal generation over winter 2022 compared to the same period the previous year. The only three to increase coal generation were Italy, Finland and Hungary. ‘Returning’ coal units brought ran only at an average of 27% of their full capacity over winter.

“Europe faced a crisis winter, with spiralling energy costs and supply concerns triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The EU got through those difficult months, but it can’t rely on emergency demand cuts and mild weather for future years. To keep power supply stable, the EU needs to divorce from fossil fuels as quickly as possible”, explained Dr. Chris Rosslowe, Senior Energy & Climate Data Analyst at Ember.