Ember has released a report showing that two years on from the COP28 agreement to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, national targets have barely shifted—global ambition has risen by just 2% since the pledge.

According to the analysis, this gap between global ambition and national planning risks undermining not only climate progress but also countries’ energy security and economic resilience. National renewable energy targets now total 7.4 TW for 2030—just over twice the 3.4 TW installed in 2022—still far below the 11 TW needed to meet the tripling pledge.

While many governments pledged bold action at COP28, actual targets show that most countries are only planning to double their renewable capacity, leaving a substantial shortfall of around 3.7 TW in global ambition.

Only 22 nations have updated their 2030 targets since COP28, and outside the European Union, just seven countries have done so. Significant nations—including the United States, China, and Russia—have yet to revise their plans, despite accounting for nearly half of global emissions.

This sluggish pace of updates highlights that most countries continue operating within usual planning cycles, minimally influenced by the COP28 commitments. With major power producers still lagging, failure to update targets soon could jeopardise national grids, investment flows, and economic resilience.

As nations prepare for COP30, Ember warns that without rapid revision of renewable goals and robust implementation of plans, the world faces the risk of failing to meet the 2030 tripling objective. Aligning national ambition with global pledges could unlock investment, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, and accelerate progress towards a more secure, affordable, and clean energy system for all.