Utility-scale solar generation is projected to exceed coal-fired power in 2026 for the first time within the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid, according to the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7d
Note: ERCOT=Electric Reliability Council of Texas

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatthours (BkWh) in 2026, compared with 60 BkWh from coal, marking a significant milestone in the evolution of Texas’ electricity mix. The shift reflects both rapidly growing electricity demand and the continued expansion of solar capacity across the state.

While natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity in ERCOT—accounting for an average 44% of generation between 2021 and 2025—solar has steadily increased its share from 4% to 12% over the same period. Coal, meanwhile, has declined from 19% to 13%, underscoring its gradual displacement in the generation mix.

Texas is expected to play a central role in U.S. solar expansion, with around 40% of national utility-scale solar additions in 2026, or roughly 14 BkWh, located in the state. Among the projects coming online is the Tehuacana Creek 1 Solar and Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), an 837-megawatt facility expected to be one of the largest solar installations commissioned in 2026.

No new coal plants are currently planned in ERCOT, according to the EIA’s Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, reinforcing the long-term decline of coal in the region.

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7d
Note: ERCOT=Electric Reliability Council of Texas

Solar has already surpassed coal on a monthly basis, first doing so in March 2025, and is expected to continue outperforming coal during most months of 2026. By 2027, solar generation in ERCOT is forecast to reach 99 BkWh, compared with 66 BkWh from coal, as demand continues to rise driven by data centers, cryptocurrency mining, industrial activity, and oil and gas-related operations.