The United States is on track to connect more than 53 GW of wind capacity through 2030, according to Wood Mackenzie’s US Wind Energy Monitor Q2 2026. The consultancy raised its five-year greenfield outlook by 5% quarter-on-quarter, driven by rising construction activity and developers’ efforts to bring projects online before the tax credit window closes.

Projects that have already passed a final investment decision account for 58% of expected greenfield capacity additions through 2028, supporting confidence in the near-term pipeline.

“The upgrade reflects a market in execution mode,” said Diego Espinosa, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie. He explained that developers are concentrating resources on projects capable of reaching commercial operation before the tax credit deadline.

Construction starts and turbine orders accelerate

Onshore wind construction starts increased by 8% between the first quarter of 2025 and the same period of 2026, as developers raced to meet the July 2026 safe harbour milestone and preserve their projects’ eligibility for tax incentives.

Firm turbine orders reached 1.1 GW in the first quarter of 2026, five times the volume recorded a year earlier. Wood Mackenzie expects new-build onshore additions to peak in 2028, as permitting delays and interconnection constraints push a growing share of early-stage projects towards the latter part of the decade.

Corporate power purchase agreements also increased year-on-year during the first quarter. Among the largest transactions was a 1.9 GW portfolio agreement between Google and Xcel Energy, reflecting the continued influence of data-centre demand on the market.

Utility procurement declined over the same period, moderating the overall increase. Wood Mackenzie said large technology companies are turning to wind power as an additional energy source to meet their growing electricity needs.

Offshore additions to peak in 2027

US offshore wind additions are forecast to peak in 2027, as the remaining 5.2 GW currently under construction approaches completion. However, the broader offshore development pipeline faces greater uncertainty.

Nine auctions collapsed during the first half of 2026, bringing more than 2,900 square kilometres of offshore leases into termination settlements. Wood Mackenzie expects proceeds from a US$2.7 billion federal lease buyout to be redirected by developers towards conventional energy sources, geothermal projects and fossil fuels.

Repowering creates an opportunity beyond 2030

Around 81 GW of US wind capacity will reach 15 years of operation by 2035, creating a viable market for repowering existing projects. At least 45% of the capacity included in Wood Mackenzie’s three-year repowering forecast is already underway.

“Wind’s story does not end in 2030 with the sunset of tax credits — it changes,” said Kárys Prado, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie.

According to Prado, developers will need to establish a new investment model that reduces reliance on tax equity while capturing the opportunities created by strong demand and constrained supply.