Europe could avoid €10.6 billion in electricity distribution grid investment by 2030 by using intelligent EV load management to make better use of existing network capacity, according to a Siemens modelling study commissioned jointly by EIT Urban Mobility, ChargeUp Europe and ACEA. The analysis estimates that accommodating projected electric vehicle growth would otherwise require €24.7 billion in grid reinforcement, a figure that could fall to around €14.1 billion with intelligent management of EV charging.

The findings come from the study Electricity Grids in Europe, which examines how the projected uptake of battery electric passenger cars and light commercial vehicles could affect electricity distribution networks across the EU27 and three EEA countries.

Based on six urban archetypes, Siemens applied its model across 64 urban centres to assess how investment, digitalisation and flexibility could help prepare Europe's electricity networks for the transition to zero-emission mobility in a more efficient and cost-effective way.

The analysis focuses in particular on EV Load Management, which refers to the near-real-time control of EV charging power to prevent grid overload during periods of peak electricity demand. The approach requires measurement and communications infrastructure and, when combined with grid digitalisation, can allow networks to make better use of existing capacity.

However, the study stresses that smart charging does not eliminate the need for physical grid reinforcement.

EV growth will increase pressure on distribution grids

Electric vehicle adoption is expected to accelerate significantly in the coming years. According to the Siemens ramp-up model used in the study, battery electric vehicles are projected to account for 27.3% of Sweden's passenger car fleet by 2030, compared with 15.7% in Germany, 4.6% in Italy, 4.5% in Spain and 2.5% in Poland.

These figures represent growth of between 3.4 and 5.3 times compared with 2024 levels in the markets analysed.

The electrification of commercial transport is also expected to accelerate, with light-duty battery electric vehicles projected to reach a 22.7% share in Sweden, 9.1% in Germany and 5.9% in Poland by 2030. In Poland, the electric van fleet is expected to grow almost tenfold over the period.

As logistics operators increasingly electrify their fleets to meet climate and urban air-quality objectives, the study highlights the importance of ensuring that electricity networks can accommodate charging demand at depots and for commercial vehicles.

Residential charging puts pressure on low-voltage networks

Where and when EVs charge will have a significant impact on local electricity demand, according to the analysis.

The model distinguishes between residential, workplace, public, en-route and depot charging. Across the representative cities, it estimates that around 55–62% of EV owners could have access to residential charging by 2030.

This is a model assumption based on housing data and projected EV adoption. The range reflects differences among the six urban archetypes represented by Stockholm, Munich, Barcelona, Rome, Kiel and Kraków.

The finding points to the growing importance of low-voltage distribution networks as Europe electrifies its transport system and reinforces the need to coordinate charging infrastructure deployment with local grid planning.

Overall, BEV numbers across the 64 urban centres analysed are projected to increase 3.8 times by 2030, with every centre requiring some level of grid reinforcement to accommodate the additional demand.

The greatest pressure is expected on low-voltage networks. The study estimates that 77.7% of physical grid reinforcement investment will be required at low voltage, driven largely by residential EV charging.

Investment needs differ across Europe

The scale of the required investment varies considerably between European regions. Central Europe accounts for the largest share of projected investment needs, followed by the Nordic countries, Eastern Europe and Southern Europe.

At city level, all 64 urban centres analysed face substantial investment requirements. While larger metropolitan areas are expected to require the highest levels of investment, the study concludes that every city in the analysis will need to reinforce its electricity distribution grid to accommodate growing EV demand.

The availability of private charging infrastructure also affects the pressure on public networks. Cities with lower access to private home charging are expected to depend more heavily on public charging infrastructure, making coordination between charging infrastructure deployment and electricity network planning increasingly important.

Smart charging could reduce reinforcement needs

Against this backdrop, the study identifies EV Load Management as a way to reduce the amount of additional grid capacity that would otherwise be required.

Without EV Load Management, the analysis estimates that €24.7 billion in electricity distribution grid reinforcement would be needed by 2030 to accommodate projected EV growth.

With intelligent management of EV charging, the requirement falls to approximately €14.1 billion, resulting in €10.6 billion in avoided grid investment.

The modelling therefore points to flexibility and digitalisation as tools that can help electricity networks absorb growing EV demand while making more efficient use of existing infrastructure.

The study nevertheless makes clear that these measures should complement, rather than replace, physical reinforcement of distribution networks as Europe moves towards the electrification of road transport.