The United States is expected to add more than 7 GW of new wind capacity in 2025, representing a 36% year-on-year increase, according to the U.S. Wind Energy Monitor report published by Wood Mackenzie and the American Clean Power Association (ACP). The five-year outlook remains unchanged quarter-over-quarter.

Amid a challenging market environment, the report shows that the US is on track to add 46 GW of new wind capacity between 2025 and 2029. While total projected volumes remain stable compared with previous forecasts, the installation schedule has shifted, with 2026 and 2027 expected to deliver significant gains of 10.7 GW and 12.7 GW, respectively, as more projects advance through the development pipeline.

During the third quarter, installations came in 23% below forecast at 932 MW. However, market momentum has improved, with 3.8 GW queued for installation in the fourth quarter of 2025, accounting for 52% of the year’s total expected capacity. This back-loaded pattern is consistent with typical project commissioning timelines.

Turbine orders rebound, visibility remains limited

US turbine order intake rebounded quarter-over-quarter to pre-One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) levels, supported by more than 2 GW of firm commitments in Q3. This marked the largest order intake in the region over the past nine months and represented a 79% increase compared with the previous quarter.

Despite this recovery, Wood Mackenzie cautioned that market visibility remains constrained, as original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are increasingly withholding project-specific details and a significant share of qualifying “start-of-construction” activity is occurring through off-site component manufacturing.

Looking further ahead, the market is expected to weaken meaningfully in 2029 following project cancellations and inactive designations for late-decade capacity, driven by permitting challenges and broader development constraints.

Rising demand strengthens the case for wind

“The US power market is facing mounting strain after a decade of flat demand, with utilities committing to 160 GW of large-load additions,” said Leila Garcia da Fonseca, director of research at Wood Mackenzie. “This represents a significant opportunity for wind energy, which benefits from strengthened economic fundamentals and a compelling business case driven by its competitively low LCOE.”

She added that turbine costs remain elevated due to tariffs, and that mid-term wind growth will depend on resolving permitting and policy uncertainty.

Power demand growth through 2029 is expected to average around 3%, compared with just 0.7% over the previous decade. Data centres will account for approximately 59 GW of the 90 GW total peak demand growth, positioning wind as a natural fit to meet rising baseload power needs.

Onshore wind activity

The five-year onshore capacity outlook remains unchanged at 39.8 GW of added capacity. The 2025–2027 project pipeline is fully committed, with all projects having turbine orders in place, and more than 60% of the three-year outlook already commissioned or under construction.

Activity is led by western states such as Wyoming and New Mexico, which will account for 34% of installations during this period. Major projects underpinning the outlook include Pattern’s 3.5 GW SunZia project in New Mexico, which is set to position the developer as the top installer in 2026, and Invenergy’s 998 MW Towner Energy Center in Colorado, the largest single project expected in 2027.

Geographic expansion continues, with Arkansas bringing its first utility-scale onshore wind project online through Cordelio’s Crossover Wind.

The repowering market also remains robust, with Wood Mackenzie projecting that 18 projects will drive 2.5 GW of additional capacity over the next three years.

Offshore wind activity

Wood Mackenzie expects offshore installation rates to slow in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to harsh winter weather conditions, pushing remaining capacity into 2026. Despite these near-term adjustments, Vineyard Wind has demonstrated strong execution, connecting 15 turbines in Q3 and delivering 200 GWh over the first nine months of the year.

“US offshore wind shows diverging momentum,” said Garcia da Fonseca. “Projects under construction with commercial operation dates expected in 2026 continue to hit key milestones, but post-2027 developments face potential delays due to constrained wind turbine installation vessel capacity, driving delays and contract terminations.”

The report also notes that the offshore wind sector is under significant financial pressure.

Tariffs push turbine costs higher

The U.S. Wind Energy Monitor highlights tariff uncertainty as a key risk to sector projections. Wood Mackenzie expects tariffs to drive turbine costs higher in 2026 before moderating in subsequent years. Overall, US onshore wind CAPEX is projected to increase by 5% through 2029.

“US wind turbine pricing is experiencing unprecedented uncertainty as conflicting market and regulatory forces interact,” Garcia da Fonseca said. “While domestic manufacturing overcapacity relative to permitted project volumes—particularly after 2028—would normally place downward pressure on prices, onshore wind costs are expected to continue rising due to tariff exposure on raw material inputs and subcomponents.”